Obama by 3% in the popular vote; 332 to 206 in the Electoral College.
President Obama's unexpectedly poor showing in the first debate will trim his margin of victory from 6% to 3%.
In the Electoral College, he will win every "battleground state" with the exception of North Carolina.
Virginia and Florida, currently dead heats, will both break for Obama. Hurricane Sandy has caused formerly undecided voters therein to remember the disaster that Hurricane Katrina was under a Republican president, an experience they will choose not to risk again.
AAs long as we are mentioning Bush and Katrina, let's not leave out the totally ignorant decisions made by the dem governor of La and the mayor before the storm hit. They both carry a huge amount of the blame.
If I had ever supported obama, which I have not, Libya would have changed my vote. There is NO excuse for the lack of leadership in this country.
djohn78 writes:
332? Where the hell do you get that? Pass me whatever you are smoking! Especially when people learn about today's announced 10.6% unemployment rate.
Where'd you dream up a 10.6% unemployment rate (let me guess, it's a special calculation from TheBalze or Fauz News which is calculated differently than it is when there's a Republican in the White House - probably based on using different Labor Force Participation Rates?).
It's the true calculation using the correct employment participation rate. If you assume that the same number of people want to work today as did the day this president took the oath of office, the unemployment rate is 10.6%.
That's change this president believes in!
djohn78 writes:
332? Where the hell do you get that? Pass me whatever you are smoking! Especially when people learn about today's announced 10.6% unemployment rate.
I just wanted to get folk's picks for post-election bragging rights.
As for my estimate, in the electoral count I awarded each candidate every toss-up state in which he led and gave President Obama two states, Florida and Virginia, in which the vote is a dead-heat.
My popular vote estimate is based on current polls, historical voting trends, and my belief that the undecided vote will swing for the president.
If you want to take part in the laughter and finger-pointing after Nov. 6, please post your numbers.
You understand that polls are oversampling Democrats by like 5% right? Romney will (without a doubt) win Florida (several pollsters have already pulled out of FL), North Carolina, Viginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado. That means of the other 5 swing states, he only needs 3 electoral votes.
Ohio is looking better and better every day. Today Obama spoke to a massive crowed of 2500 and Romney is speaking to 50,000. Minnesota might be in play, Even New Jersey may be in play. Even Illinois might go for Romney. Just two years ago they elected a Republican to US Senate.
djohn78 writes:
It's the true calculation using the correct employment participation rate. If you assume that the same number of people want to work today as did the day this president took the oath of office, the unemployment rate is 10.6%.
That's change this president believes in!
So your number includes anyone who retired in the last four years and those who are furthering their education and anyone taking time out to raise kids born in the last four years and calls them "unemployed"? That makes sense how?
Matt, you have to agree the unemployment figures are not accurate.
The numbers do not include people who have just given up looking for a job. They do not include people workers underemployed.
Whether you support Romney or Obama, the number of people unemployed is staggering. No matter how anyone wants to spin it, right or left, we have got to get people back working in jobs that pay a wage that can support their families.
This country has got to rise out of the ashes. We have to restore greatness!
djohn78 writes:
It's the true calculation using the correct employment participation rate. If you assume that the same number of people want to work today as did the day this president took the oath of office, the unemployment rate is 10.6%.
That's change this president believes in!
So your number includes anyone who retired in the last four years and those who are furthering their education and anyone taking time out to raise kids born in the last four years and calls them "unemployed"? That makes sense how?
There are things called trends. As people retire or decide not to work, other people enter the job market. I know it's a tough concept to understand.
I wouldn't accept anyone "cooking the books" like this.
sillystring writes:
Matt, you have to agree the unemployment figures are not accurate.
The approach of ignoring people who experienced life changes (retirement, babies, continuing education etc) is not more accurate though.
sillystring writes:
The numbers do not include people who have just given up looking for a job. They do not include people workers underemployed.
And I think it is difficult to assess which people should be included. How would the Labor Dept differentiate between people who don't want to work (stay at home Moms for example) versus people who want to work but gave up? I don't think that is an impossible task but it isn't trivial either.
sillystring writes:
Whether you support Romney or Obama, the number of people unemployed is staggering. No matter how anyone wants to spin it, right or left, we have got to get people back working in jobs that pay a wage that can support their families.
This thread has turned into another general partisan election debate. That's okay but what I had in mind was less dialectic and more pure fun. Just pick a percentage win in the popular vote and a number in the Electoral College. You can justify your decision if you like but I'd just like to see how close people with different perspectives come to the real results.
djohn78 writes:
There are things called trends. As people retire or decide not to work, other people enter the job market. I know it's a tough concept to understand.
That still doesn't make your calculation any less ridiculous - taking four year old labor participation numbers and current job figures and claiming that is sensible just exposes your lack of interest in actual facts when they're inconvenient for your political persuasion.
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